Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions          下载免费PDF全文

Elisabeth Stephens  Paul Bates 《水文研究》2015,29(19):4264-4283

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD‐FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post‐peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding          下载免费PDF全文

Jefferson S. Wong  Jim E. Freer  Paul D. Bates  David A. Sear  Elisabeth M. Stephens 《水文研究》2015,29(2):261-279

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method          下载免费PDF全文

Lei Ye  Jianzhong Zhou  Hoshin V. Gupta  Hairong Zhang  Xiaofan Zeng  Lu Chen 《水文研究》2016,30(15):2703-2716

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept          下载免费PDF全文

James O. Knighton  M. Todd Walter 《水文研究》2016,30(21):3788-3803

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

“五江一河”的洪水特征及其对跨流域调水量的制约——三评“红旗河工程”构想     

赵希涛  魏乐军 《地球学报》2020,41(1):91-105

在上文阐明"五江一河"径流量的年际变化及各节点具体径流量要比"红旗河工程"构想少得多的基础上,本文依据前人资料和成果,进一步阐述这些河流的径流量,在年内分配的不均匀性与洪水特征,及其对跨流域调水量的制约作用。研究表明:"五江一河"在11月到翌年4月,径流量只占全年总径流量的12.09%~21.84%,月均只有2.01%~3.64%,为冬、春季枯水期。其径流量只比拟调水比例20%或21%的月均值1.67%或1.75%略多。如此之少的水量,只能维系流域内的生态、生产及生活用水,而不能跨流域调水。何况"红旗河"中、下游在冬季结冰期也难以进行调水。每年6月份到9月份的4个月,"五江一河"径流量占全年径流量的53.3%~88.3%,甚至8月份的月径流量可达全年总径流量的17.8%~29.6%,属于汛期。根据径流量的实际数据,一年当中可供调水时间段只有丰水与平水期的6个月或汛期的3~4个月,要比"红旗河工程"构想的全年调水的时间大大缩短。在可资跨流域调水的每年5—10月份的时间窗口中,如果按原构想的月均调水流量占年径流量的比例1.67%(按20%计)或1.75%(按21%计)进行调水,则"五江一河"的年调水总量仅为153.25×10^8m^3(按20%计)或161.50×10^8m^3(按21%计)。仅为原构想调水量600亿m^3的1/4,充其量不足27%。在丰水与平水期的6个月中实现年径流量20%或21%的年调水比例,就意味将月调水比例从占年径流量的1.67%或1.75%增加为3.33%或3.50%。这样,"五江一河"的年调水总量可达到306.50×10^8m^3或323.00×10^8 m^3。此调水方案,导致调水河道截面积或工程规模增加一倍,但调水量也只有原构想的大约一半或至多54%。如果将调水目标强行设定为600亿m^3,那么"五江一河"的调水比例将提高到占年径流量的27.1%(南水北调西线工程开展前),或除金沙江和雅砻江之外的其它调水河流的39.0%(南水北调西线工程完成后),"红旗河"的建设规模势必大大增加,这也意味着工程难度大大增加,意味着工程建设与运行成本大大增加,意味着洪水、地震与地质灾害的危险性大大增加。"五江一河"实际可调水量比"红旗河"构想严重减少,使人不禁会对"红旗河"工程立论的科学基础和科学依据提出质疑。  相似文献   

Hydrodynamic Tidal Model of the Persian Gulf Based on Spatially Variable Bed Friction Coefficient     

Mostafa Sohrabi Athar  Alireza A. Ardalan  Roohollah Karimi 《Marine Geodesy》2019,42(1):25-45

The aim of this study is to develop a two-dimensional hydrodynamic tidal model for the Persian Gulf (PG2017) using 2D-MIKE21 software. The advantages of present study is accounting for the spatial variation of bed friction coefficient besides a precise bathymetry together with a 23-year of combined records of satellite altimetry data. We found that the bed friction coefficient has a significant effect on sea level changes in the region under our modeling consideration. Since the tidal behavior in the northern part of the Qeshm Island is significantly different from the other parts of the Persian Gulf, to present a more accurate hydrodynamic tidal model, the Gulf is divided into two regions where the bed friction coefficient is modeled separately for each region. The root mean square value of the differences between the amplitude of dominant constituents; M2, S2, K1, and O1 derived from the PG2017 model and that of 98 altimetry and coastal tide gauge stations are respectively equal to 1.6, 1.9, 2.8, and 1.3?cm. Moreover, comparing the PG2017 model efficiency with the FES2014, OSU12, EOT11a, DTU10, and Admiralty models shows that the PG2017 model has an improvement of 22.1%, 47.2%, 43.2%, 44.2%, and 57.6% in terms of relative error, respectively.  相似文献   

The Early Permian Woniusi Flood Basalts from the Baoshan Terrane, SW China: Petrogenesis and Geodynamic Implications     

CAO Jun  ZHANG Gaizhi  WANG Xuan  CHEN Jun 《《地质学报》英文版》2020,94(6):2091-2114

The Woniusi flood basalts from the Baoshan terrane, SW China, represent a signi?cant eruption of volcanic rocks which were linked to the Late Paleozoic rifting of the Cimmeria from the northern margin of East Gondwana. However, the precise mechanism for the formation and propagation of the rifting is still in debate. Here we report 40Ar/39Ar dating, whole-rock geochemistry, and Sr–Nd–Pb isotopes for the Woniusi basalts from the Baoshan terrane of SW China, with the aim of assessing if a mantle plume was related to the formation of the continent Cimmeria. 40Ar/39Ar dating of the Woniusi basalts yielded ages of 279.3 ± 1.1 Ma and 273.9 ± 1.5 Ma, indicating they were emplaced during the Early Permian. Whole-rock geochemistry shows that these basalts have subalkaline tholeiitic af?nity, low TiO2 (1.2–2.2 wt%), and fractionated chondrite-normalized LREE and nearly ?at HREE patterns [(La/Yb)N = 2.86–5.77; (Dy/Yb)N = 1.21–1.49] with noticeable negative Nb and Ta anomalies on the primitive mantle-normalized trace element diagram. The ?Nd(t) values (?4.76 to +0.92) and high (206Pb/204Pb)i (18.40?18.66) along with partial melt modeling indicates that the basalts were likely derived from a sub-continental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) source metasomatized by subduction-related processes. On the basis of a similar emplacement age to the Panjal basalts and Qiangtang mafic dykes and flood basalts in the Himalayas, combined with a tectonic reconstruction of Gondwana in the Early Permian, we propose that the large-scale eruption of these basalts and dykes was related to an Early Permian mantle plume that possibly initiated the rifting on the northern margin of East Gondwana.  相似文献   

Long‐term monitoring of a mercury contaminated estuary (Ria de Aveiro,Portugal): the effect of weather events and management in mercury transport          下载免费PDF全文

J. P. Coelho  P. Pato  B. Henriques  A. Picado  A. I. Lillebø  J. M. Dias  A. C. Duarte  M. E. Pereira  M. A. Pardal 《水文研究》2014,28(2):352-360

The main aim of this research was to assess the mercury transport from an estuarine basin with a background of anthropogenic contamination during a spring tidal cycle (year 2009) and compare it with two previous tidal cycles (years 1994 and 1999), as part of a long‐term monitoring program. Results showed that effective mercury transport occurs both in the dissolved and particulate fractions (0.18 and 0.20 kg per tidal cycle, respectively), and despite an overall decrease in environmental contamination, results more than double previous findings on particulate transport in the system. These findings result essentially from changes in the tidal prism (net export of 2 million m³ of water), given that both dissolved and particulate concentrations did not increase over time. Hydrodynamic simulations were performed to evaluate the effect of physical disturbance (dredging) and weather events (increased freshwater flow) in these processes, and results suggest the increased freshwater flow into the system as the main forcing function for the mercury transport increment. These results highlight the importance of long‐term monitoring programs, since despite an overall improvement in local contamination levels, the enhancement of transport processes through hydrological changes increases environmental pressure away from the contamination source. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Glacial flood pulse effects on benthic fauna in equatorial high‐Andean streams          下载免费PDF全文

Sophie Cauvy‐Fraunié  Patricio Andino  Rodrigo Espinosa  Roger Calvez  Fabien Anthelme  Dean Jacobsen  Olivier Dangles 《水文研究》2014,28(6):3008-3017

Equatorial glacier‐fed streams present unique hydraulic patterns when compared to glacier‐fed observed in temperate regions as the main variability in discharge occurs on a daily basis. To assess how benthic fauna respond to these specific hydraulic conditions, we investigated the relationships between flow regime, hydraulic conditions (boundary Reynolds number, Re*), and macroinvertebrate communities (taxon richness and abundance) in a tropical glacier‐fed stream located in the high Ecuadorian Andes (> 4000 m). Both physical and biotic variables were measured under four discharge conditions (base‐flow and glacial flood pulses of various intensities), at 30 random points, in two sites whose hydraulic conditions were representative to those found in other streams of the study catchment. While daily glacial flood pulses significantly increased hydraulic stress in the benthic habitats (appearance of Re* > 2000), low stress areas still persisted even during extreme flood events (Re* < 500). In contrast to previous research in temperate glacier‐fed streams, taxon richness and abundance were not significantly affected by changes in hydraulic conditions induced by daily glacial flood pulses. However, we found that a few rare taxa, in particular rare ones, preferentially occurred in highly stressed hydraulic habitats. Monte‐Carlo simulations of benthic communities under glacial flood reduction scenarios predicted that taxon richness would be significantly reduced by the loss of high hydraulic stress habitats following glacier shrinking. This pioneer study on the relationship between hydraulic conditions and benthic diversity in an equatorial glacial stream evidenced unknown effects of climate change on singular yet endangered aquatic systems. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Flood seasonality across Scandinavia—Evidence of a shifting hydrograph?          下载免费PDF全文

Bettina Matti  Helen E. Dahlke  Bastien Dieppois  Damian M. Lawler  Steve W. Lyon 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4354-4370

Fluvial flood events have substantial impacts on humans, both socially and economically, as well as on ecosystems (e.g., hydroecology and pollutant transport). Concurrent with climate change, the seasonality of flooding in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt‐dominated to a rainfall‐dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, that is, flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply, and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large‐scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality and defining related key drivers therefore is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explores changes in flood seasonality across near‐natural catchments in Scandinavia using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt‐dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring and early summer (March through June), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows with 5–35% of the catchments showing significant changes at the 5% significance level. Seasonal mean daily flows corroborate those findings with higher percentages (5–60%) of the catchments showing statistically significant changes. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt‐dominated to rainfall‐dominated with consistent changes towards earlier timing of the flood peak (significant for 25% of the catchments). Regionally consistent patterns suggest a first‐order climate control as well as a local second‐order catchment control, which causes inter‐seasonal variability in the streamflow response.  相似文献